Pair #1224

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VAC26-MFIT

Will Matt Fitzpatrick lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 40878

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-VAC26-MFIT

Valspar Championship: Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish top 10 in the 1st round?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-03-19T22:30:00Z
Volume: 844

YES ask: 0.2200
NO ask: 0.8100
Last: 0.2200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick finishes top 10 (including ties) in the first round of the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:20:59Z

Reasoning: If Fitzpatrick leads after round 1, he is by definition in the top position, which is within the top 10. The reverse does not hold — finishing top 10 in round 1 does not mean he leads.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.1900
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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