Pair #12239

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-BGRI

The Open Championship: Will Ben Griffin finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Ben Griffin
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 428

YES ask: 0.1300
NO ask: 0.8800
Last: 0.1300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ben Griffin finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-BGRI

The Open Championship: Will Ben Griffin finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Ben Griffin
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 23966

YES ask: 0.2700
NO ask: 0.7500
Last: 0.2700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Ben Griffin finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -96.64% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1500 + ~$0.0212 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -100.87% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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