Pair #12238

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1TOP10-THOC26-JDAY

The Open Championship: Will Jason Day finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Jason Day
Expiration: 2026-07-16T16:00:00Z
Volume: 375

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jason Day finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-JDAY

Will Jason Day win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Jason Day
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 651048

YES ask: 0.0050
NO ask: 0.9970
Last: 0.0050

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jason Day wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: round-position and final-result markets don't imply each other

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): N/A
Cost: $1.0050 + ~$0.0003 est. fees
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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