Pair #12237

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-JDAY

Will Jason Day lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Jason Day
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1231

YES ask: 0.0090
NO ask: 0.9920
Last: 0.0090

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jason Day is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-THOC26-JDAY

The Open Championship: Will Jason Day finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Jason Day
Expiration: 2026-07-16T16:00:00Z
Volume: 375

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jason Day finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGAR1LEAD is a strict subset of KXPGAR1TOP10 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -91.22% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1120 + ~$0.0079 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -95.45% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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