Pair #12222

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-CCON

The Open Championship: Will Corey Conners finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Corey Conners
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 9886

YES ask: 0.2000
NO ask: 0.8100
Last: 0.2000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Corey Conners finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-CCON

The Open Championship: Will Corey Conners make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Corey Conners
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 323

YES ask: 0.6400
NO ask: 0.3700
Last: 0.6400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Corey Conners has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP20 is a strict subset of KXPGAMAKECUT for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.98% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4500 + ~$0.0269 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.21% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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