Pair #12219

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-CCON

The Open Championship: Will Corey Conners finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Corey Conners
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 13441

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9100
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Corey Conners finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-CCON

The Open Championship: Will Corey Conners make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Corey Conners
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 323

YES ask: 0.6400
NO ask: 0.3700
Last: 0.6400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Corey Conners has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGAMAKECUT for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.99% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5500 + ~$0.0219 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.22% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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