Pair #12216

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-THOC26-RHEN

The Open Championship: Will Russell Henley finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Russell Henley
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 3283

YES ask: 0.1000
NO ask: 0.9200
Last: 0.0900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Russell Henley finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-RHEN

The Open Championship: Will Russell Henley make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Russell Henley
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 689

YES ask: 0.7200
NO ask: 0.2900
Last: 0.7100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Russell Henley has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP5 is a strict subset of KXPGAMAKECUT for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.6400 + ~$0.0193 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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