Pair #1221

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-MFIT

Valspar Championship: Will Matt Fitzpatrick make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1568

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 0.0900
Last: 0.9100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Matt Fitzpatrick makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VAC26-MFIT

Will Matt Fitzpatrick lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 40878

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Matt Fitzpatrick is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:20:59Z

Reasoning: Leading after round 1 does not guarantee making the cut (a player could collapse in round 2), and making the cut does not require having led after round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.1300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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