Pair #1220

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-VAC26-MFIT

Will Matt Fitzpatrick lead at the end of Round 1 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 40878

YES ask: 0.0400
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR2LEAD-VAC26-MFIT

Will Matt Fitzpatrick lead at the end of Round 2 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7768

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:20:59Z

Reasoning: Leading after round 1 does not guarantee leading after round 2, and leading after round 2 does not require having led after round 1. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue