Pair #12192

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-THAT

The Open Championship: Will Tyrrell Hatton finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Tyrrell Hatton
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 2743

YES ask: 0.2100
NO ask: 0.8000
Last: 0.2100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tyrrell Hatton finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-THAT

The Open Championship: Will Tyrrell Hatton make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Tyrrell Hatton
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 474

YES ask: 0.7100
NO ask: 0.3100
Last: 0.7100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tyrrell Hatton has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGAMAKECUT for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.98% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5100 + ~$0.0256 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.21% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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