Pair #1219

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-VAC26-MFIT

Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2175602

YES ask: 0.2100
NO ask: 0.8100
Last: 0.2100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Matt Fitzpatrick wins the Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-VAC26-MFIT

Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 2175602

YES ask: 0.2100
NO ask: 0.8100
Last: 0.2100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Matt Fitzpatrick wins the Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:20:59Z

Reasoning: Winning the Valspar does not require leading after round 1 (a player could come from behind), and leading after round 1 does not guarantee winning the tournament. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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