Pair #12180

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-MMCN

The Open Championship: Will Maverick McNealy finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Maverick McNealy
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 2063

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9000
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Maverick McNealy finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-MMCN

The Open Championship: Will Maverick McNealy make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Maverick McNealy
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 1029

YES ask: 0.6300
NO ask: 0.3800
Last: 0.6300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Maverick McNealy has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGAMAKECUT for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.99% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5300 + ~$0.0226 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.22% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

Authenticate

← Back to review queue