Pair #12178

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-MMCN

The Open Championship: Will Maverick McNealy finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Maverick McNealy
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 2063

YES ask: 0.1100
NO ask: 0.9000
Last: 0.1100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Maverick McNealy finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-MMCN

The Open Championship: Will Maverick McNealy finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Maverick McNealy
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 761

YES ask: 0.2200
NO ask: 0.7900
Last: 0.2200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Maverick McNealy finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -93.81% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1200 + ~$0.0183 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -98.04% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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