Pair #12172

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-SBUR

Will Sam Burns lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Sam Burns
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 44866

YES ask: 0.0150
NO ask: 0.9860
Last: 0.0180

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Sam Burns is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-THOC26-SBUR

The Open Championship: Will Sam Burns finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Sam Burns
Expiration: 2026-07-16T16:00:00Z
Volume: 267

YES ask: 0.1700
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1700

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Sam Burns finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGAR1LEAD is a strict subset of KXPGAR1TOP10 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -96.36% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1560 + ~$0.0108 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -100.59% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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