Pair #12167

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-THOC26-JSPA

The Open Championship: Will J.J. Spaun finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 8249

YES ask: 0.0800
NO ask: 0.9400
Last: 0.0700

View on Kalshi

Rules If J.J. Spaun finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-JSPA

The Open Championship: Will J.J. Spaun finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: J.J. Spaun
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1704

YES ask: 0.2700
NO ask: 0.7400
Last: 0.2700

View on Kalshi

Rules If J.J. Spaun finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP5 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -98.78% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2100 + ~$0.0177 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -103.01% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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