Pair #12162

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-TOK

Will Tom Kim lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 42022

YES ask: 0.0220
NO ask: 0.9930
Last: 0.0220

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tom Kim is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP5-THOC26-TKIM

The Open Championship: Will Tom Kim finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Tom Kim
Expiration: 2026-07-16T16:00:00Z
Volume: 742

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tom Kim finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGAR1LEAD is a strict subset of KXPGAR1TOP5 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -94.21% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1330 + ~$0.0089 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -98.44% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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