Pair #12156

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-JTHO

The Open Championship: Will Justin Thomas finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1591

YES ask: 0.3000
NO ask: 0.7100
Last: 0.2900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Thomas finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-JTHO

The Open Championship: Will Justin Thomas make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 5011

YES ask: 0.7000
NO ask: 0.3300
Last: 0.6900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Thomas has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP20 is a strict subset of KXPGAMAKECUT for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.94% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4100 + ~$0.0291 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.17% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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