Pair #12151

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-JTHO

The Open Championship: Will Justin Thomas finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 2275

YES ask: 0.1700
NO ask: 0.8400
Last: 0.1700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Thomas finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-JTHO

The Open Championship: Will Justin Thomas finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Justin Thomas
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 7007

YES ask: 0.3000
NO ask: 0.7100
Last: 0.3000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Justin Thomas finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -96.88% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1400 + ~$0.0241 est. fees
Days to maturity: 16
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -101.11% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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