Pair #12148

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-JNIE

Will Joaquin Niemann lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Joaquin Niemann
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 29704

YES ask: 0.0110
NO ask: 0.9910
Last: 0.0090

View on Kalshi

Rules If Joaquin Niemann is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-JNIE

The Open Championship: Will Joaquin Niemann finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Joaquin Niemann
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 440

YES ask: 0.1500
NO ask: 0.8600
Last: 0.1500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Joaquin Niemann finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: round-position and final-result markets don't imply each other

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -95.08% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1410 + ~$0.0095 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -99.31% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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