Pair #12147

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-JNIE

The Open Championship: Will Joaquin Niemann finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Joaquin Niemann
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 440

YES ask: 0.1500
NO ask: 0.8600
Last: 0.1500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Joaquin Niemann finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-JNIE

The Open Championship: Will Joaquin Niemann finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Joaquin Niemann
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 3182

YES ask: 0.2800
NO ask: 0.7300
Last: 0.2800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Joaquin Niemann finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP10 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP20 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -95.28% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1400 + ~$0.0225 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -99.51% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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