Pair #12138

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-MLEE

The Open Championship: Will Min Woo Lee finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Min Woo Lee
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 5325

YES ask: 0.3100
NO ask: 0.7000
Last: 0.3200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Min Woo Lee finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-MLEE

The Open Championship: Will Min Woo Lee make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Min Woo Lee
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 443

YES ask: 0.7000
NO ask: 0.3200
Last: 0.7100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Min Woo Lee has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP20 is a strict subset of KXPGAMAKECUT for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.95% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4000 + ~$0.0294 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.18% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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