Pair #12132

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-JSPI

Will Jordan Spieth lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 21982

YES ask: 0.0110
NO ask: 0.9990
Last: 0.0110

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan Spieth is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP5-THOC26-JSPI

The Open Championship: Will Jordan Spieth finish top 5 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP5
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-07-16T16:00:00Z
Volume: 574

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.1000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan Spieth finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGAR1LEAD is a strict subset of KXPGAR1TOP5 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -92.24% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1190 + ~$0.0075 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -96.47% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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