Pair #12125

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-STHE

The Open Championship: Will Sahith Theegala finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Sahith Theegala
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 3862

YES ask: 0.1400
NO ask: 0.8700
Last: 0.1500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sahith Theegala finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-STHE

The Open Championship: Will Sahith Theegala make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Sahith Theegala
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 402

YES ask: 0.5700
NO ask: 0.4700
Last: 0.5300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Sahith Theegala has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP20 is a strict subset of KXPGAMAKECUT for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.97% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4400 + ~$0.0251 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.20% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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