Antecedent (if this happens)
KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-BKOE
Will Brooks Koepka lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?
Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 14375
YES ask: 0.0120
NO ask: 0.9890
Last: 0.0120
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Brooks Koepka is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP5-THOC26-BKOE
The Open Championship: Will Brooks Koepka finish top 5?
Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Brooks Koepka
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 3896
YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0600
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Brooks Koepka finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685
Reasoning: rule: round-position and final-result markets don't imply each other
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
-59.57%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.0390
+ ~$0.0041 est. fees
Days to maturity:
17
Hurdle yield:
4.23%
Excess yield:
-63.80%
BELOW HURDLE