Pair #1212

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-MFIT

Valspar Championship: Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 12539

YES ask: 0.9800
NO ask: 0.0300
Last: 0.9700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-MFIT

Valspar Championship: Will Matt Fitzpatrick make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1568

YES ask: 0.9900
NO ask: 0.0900
Last: 0.9100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:20:41Z

Reasoning: If Fitzpatrick finishes top 20, he must have made the cut (you cannot finish in the top 20 of a tournament without surviving the cut). The reverse is not true — making the cut does not guarantee a top 20 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0200
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue