Pair #1211

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR2LEAD-VAC26-MFIT

Will Matt Fitzpatrick lead at the end of Round 2 in the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGAR2LEAD
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 7768

YES ask: 0.0600
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick is the leader at the end of Round 2 in the 2026 Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-MFIT

Valspar Championship: Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 12539

YES ask: 0.9800
NO ask: 0.0300
Last: 0.9700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:20:41Z

Reasoning: Leading after Round 2 does not guarantee a top 20 finish, and finishing top 20 does not require leading after Round 2. No logical necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.9500
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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