Pair #12101

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-PCAN

The Open Championship: Will Patrick Cantlay finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Patrick Cantlay
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 2761

YES ask: 0.3100
NO ask: 0.7000
Last: 0.3100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Cantlay finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-PCAN

The Open Championship: Will Patrick Cantlay make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Patrick Cantlay
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 1765

YES ask: 0.7100
NO ask: 0.3100
Last: 0.6900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Patrick Cantlay has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP20 is a strict subset of KXPGAMAKECUT for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.94% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4100 + ~$0.0291 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.17% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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