Pair #12091

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-JRAH

The Open Championship: Will Jon Rahm finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 6593

YES ask: 0.4500
NO ask: 0.5600
Last: 0.4400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jon Rahm finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-JRAH

The Open Championship: Will Jon Rahm make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 594

YES ask: 0.7800
NO ask: 0.2400
Last: 0.7800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jon Rahm has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP20 is a strict subset of KXPGAMAKECUT for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.83% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3400 + ~$0.0293 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.06% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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