Pair #1209

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-MFIT

Valspar Championship: Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 12539

YES ask: 0.9800
NO ask: 0.0300
Last: 0.9700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-MFIT

Will Matt Fitzpatrick win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 6146824

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:20:41Z

Reasoning: Finishing top 20 at the Valspar has no logical connection to winning the Masters. These are entirely separate tournaments. No necessity in either direction.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $0.0310
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue