Pair #1208

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-VAC26-MFIT

Valspar Championship: Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 38279

YES ask: 0.7700
NO ask: 0.2600
Last: 0.7700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick finishes top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-MFIT

Valspar Championship: Will Matt Fitzpatrick finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Matt Fitzpatrick
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 12539

YES ask: 0.9800
NO ask: 0.0300
Last: 0.9700

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matt Fitzpatrick finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:20:41Z

Reasoning: If Fitzpatrick finishes top 5, he necessarily finishes top 20 (top 5 is a subset of top 20). The reverse is not true — finishing top 20 does not guarantee top 5.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.2400
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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