Pair #12068

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-CAME

Will Cameron Young lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Cameron Young
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 13596

YES ask: 0.0150
NO ask: 0.9940
Last: 0.0150

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cameron Young is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1TOP10-THOC26-CAME

The Open Championship: Will Cameron Young finish top 10 in Round 1?

Series: KXPGAR1TOP10
Entity: Cameron Young
Expiration: 2026-07-16T16:00:00Z
Volume: 1439

YES ask: 0.1700
NO ask: 0.8800
Last: 0.2000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Cameron Young finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 1st Round of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGAR1LEAD is a strict subset of KXPGAR1TOP10 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -96.15% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1640 + ~$0.0103 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -100.38% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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