Pair #12062

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-CMOR

The Open Championship: Will Collin Morikawa finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 9376

YES ask: 0.3500
NO ask: 0.6600
Last: 0.3500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Collin Morikawa finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-CMOR

The Open Championship: Will Collin Morikawa make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Collin Morikawa
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 310

YES ask: 0.7300
NO ask: 0.3000
Last: 0.7300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Collin Morikawa has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP20 is a strict subset of KXPGAMAKECUT for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.95% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3900 + ~$0.0295 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.18% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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