Pair #12056

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-THOC26-PHAR

The Open Championship: Will Padraig Harrington finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Padraig Harrington
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 773

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules If Padraig Harrington finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-PHAR

The Open Championship: Will Padraig Harrington finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Padraig Harrington
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1516

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Padraig Harrington finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: rule-screener-v1
Screened: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: rule: KXPGATOP5 is a strict subset of KXPGATOP10 for the same player and tournament

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -47.24% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0300 + ~$0.0020 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -51.47% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Decision: confirmed
Reviewed at: 2026-07-15T07:45:37Z

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