Pair #1205

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-VAC26-SPOW

Will Seamus Power win the Valspar Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Seamus Power
Expiration: 2026-03-22T00:00:00Z
Volume: 17799

YES ask: 0.0100
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0100

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Seamus Power wins the Valspar Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-VAC26-SPOW

Valspar Championship: Will Seamus Power finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Seamus Power
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 1882

YES ask: 0.4300
NO ask: 0.5900
Last: 0.4300

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Seamus Power finishes top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:20:41Z

Reasoning: If Seamus Power wins the Valspar Championship, he necessarily finishes top 20 (finishing 1st is within top 20). The reverse is not true — finishing top 20 does not mean he won.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.4300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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