Pair #1202

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-TFIN

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 4586

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0600

Rules

If Tony Finau wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-TFIN

Valspar Championship: Will Tony Finau finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 5462

YES ask: 0.2400
NO ask: 0.8100
Last: 0.2400

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tony Finau finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:20:41Z

Reasoning: Winning a major in 2026 has no logical connection to finishing top 10 at the Valspar Championship, which is not a major. Neither event necessitates the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: -29.86% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.2300
Days to maturity: 213
Hurdle yield: 4.28%
Excess yield: -34.15% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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