Pair #1201

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP10-VAC26-TFIN

Valspar Championship: Will Tony Finau finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 5462

YES ask: 0.2400
NO ask: 0.8100
Last: 0.2400

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tony Finau finishes top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-VAC26-TFIN

Valspar Championship: Will Tony Finau make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-04-05T00:00:00Z
Volume: 3193

YES ask: 0.9000
NO ask: 0.1600
Last: 0.6500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Tony Finau makes the cut in the 2026 Valspar Championship golf tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:20:41Z

Reasoning: If Finau finishes top 10, he must have made the cut (you cannot finish top 10 without surviving the cut). The reverse is not true — making the cut does not guarantee a top 10 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.7100
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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