Pair #11988

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-RMCI

Will Rory McIlroy lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 143762

YES ask: 0.0350
NO ask: 0.9720
Last: 0.0350

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Rules

If Rory McIlroy is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR2TOP10-THOC26-RMCI

The Open Championship: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 10 in Round 2?

Series: KXPGAR2TOP10
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-07-17T16:00:00Z
Volume: 518

YES ask: 0.3800
NO ask: 0.7100
Last: 0.3800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Rory McIlroy finishes in the top 10 (including ties) after the first 2 rounds of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T08:01:21Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: Leading after round1 does not guarantee top10 after round2 due to possible round2 collapse.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.88% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3520 + ~$0.0184 est. fees
Days to maturity: 17
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.11% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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