Pair #11986

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAR2TOP10-THOC26-RMCI

The Open Championship: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 10 in Round 2?

Series: KXPGAR2TOP10
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-07-17T16:00:00Z
Volume: 518

YES ask: 0.3800
NO ask: 0.7100
Last: 0.3800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rory McIlroy finishes in the top 10 (including ties) after the first 2 rounds of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP10-THOC26-RMCI

The Open Championship: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 10?

Series: KXPGATOP10
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 25699

YES ask: 0.4000
NO ask: 0.6100
Last: 0.4000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rory McIlroy finishes in the top 10 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T08:01:21Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: Final top10 and round‑2 top10 are separate time points; neither guarantees the other.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1100 + ~$0.0312 est. fees
Days to maturity: 1
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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