Pair #11984

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXOWGRRANK-26AUGT20-RMCI

Will Rory McIlroy be ranked top 20 on the Official World Golf Ranking on Aug 3, 2026?

Series: KXOWGRRANK
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-08-03T14:00:00Z
Volume: 220

YES ask: 1.0000
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.9900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rory McIlroy is ranked in the top 20 (including ties) on the Official World Golf Ranking on August 3rd, 2026 at 10:00am EST, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR2TOP10-THOC26-RMCI

The Open Championship: Will Rory McIlroy finish top 10 in Round 2?

Series: KXPGAR2TOP10
Entity: Rory McIlroy
Expiration: 2026-07-17T16:00:00Z
Volume: 518

YES ask: 0.3800
NO ask: 0.7100
Last: 0.3800

View on Kalshi

Rules If Rory McIlroy finishes in the top 10 (including ties) after the first 2 rounds of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T08:00:59Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: World ranking depends on cumulative results, not a single tournament's Round 2 standing.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.83% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3500 + ~$0.0185 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.06% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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