Pair #11982

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26USA-SSCH

Will Scottie Scheffler finish as the top American golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-07-17T17:38:37.305023Z
Volume: 337

YES ask: 0.1800
NO ask: 0.8500
Last: 0.2000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler records the lowest total strokes among all American golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP5-THOC26-SSCH

The Open Championship: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 11972

YES ask: 0.3300
NO ask: 0.6800
Last: 0.3300

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T08:00:59Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: Another American could finish higher in the top 5, so a top 5 finish doesn't guarantee top American status.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.1800 + ~$0.0244 est. fees
Days to maturity: 1
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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