Pair #11981

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-THOC26-SSCH

Will Scottie Scheffler win the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-07-19T04:00:00Z
Volume: 2453329

YES ask: 0.1200
NO ask: 0.8900
Last: 0.1200

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Rules

If Scottie Scheffler wins the The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26USA-SSCH

Will Scottie Scheffler finish as the top American golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-07-17T17:38:37.305023Z
Volume: 337

YES ask: 0.1800
NO ask: 0.8500
Last: 0.2000

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Scottie Scheffler records the lowest total strokes among all American golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T08:00:59Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: Winning the tournament means having the lowest overall score, which necessarily includes being the lowest among American finishers.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.95% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0700 + ~$0.0172 est. fees
Days to maturity: 4
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.18% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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