Pair #11979

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26USA-SSCH

Will Scottie Scheffler finish as the top American golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-07-17T17:38:37.305023Z
Volume: 337

YES ask: 0.1800
NO ask: 0.8500
Last: 0.2000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler records the lowest total strokes among all American golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAR1LEAD-THOC26-SSCH

Will Scottie Scheffler lead at the end of Round 1 in the The Open Championship?

Series: KXPGAR1LEAD
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 187699

YES ask: 0.0450
NO ask: 0.9580
Last: 0.0450

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler is the leader at the end of Round 1 in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T08:00:59Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: A Round 1 lead has no bearing on the final top American finisher.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): >999% PROFITABLE
Cost: $0.8950 + ~$0.0119 est. fees
Days to maturity: 1
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: >999% PROFITABLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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