Pair #11978

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26USA-SSCH

Will Scottie Scheffler finish as the top American golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-07-17T17:38:37.305023Z
Volume: 337

YES ask: 0.1800
NO ask: 0.8500
Last: 0.2000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler records the lowest total strokes among all American golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP20-THOC26-SSCH

The Open Championship: Will Scottie Scheffler finish top 20?

Series: KXPGATOP20
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 20870

YES ask: 0.6600
NO ask: 0.3500
Last: 0.6600

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler finishes in the top 20 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T08:00:59Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: Top 20 finish does not guarantee being the top American finisher.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -100.00% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.5100 + ~$0.0246 est. fees
Days to maturity: 1
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.23% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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