Pair #11974

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-SSCH

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 220746

YES ask: 0.1300
NO ask: 0.8800
Last: 0.1200

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAPLAYERCAT-THOC26USA-SSCH

Will Scottie Scheffler finish as the top American golfer in the tournament?

Series: KXPGAPLAYERCAT
Entity: Scottie Scheffler
Expiration: 2026-07-17T17:38:37.305023Z
Volume: 337

YES ask: 0.1800
NO ask: 0.8500
Last: 0.2000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Scottie Scheffler records the lowest total strokes among all American golfers who complete the full tournament of the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T08:00:59Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: Scheffler could win a different major (not the Open) without being top American there.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -15.01% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.0600 + ~$0.0177 est. fees
Days to maturity: 168
Hurdle yield: 4.44%
Excess yield: -19.45% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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