Antecedent (if this happens)
KXLIVCOMPETE-27APR-BDEC
Bryson DeChambeau to compete in a LIV Golf Tournament in Q1 2027 (January 1, 2027 to March 31, 2027)?
Series: KXLIVCOMPETE
Entity: Bryson DeChambeau
Expiration: 2027-04-01T14:00:00Z
Volume: 1011
YES ask: 0.2900
NO ask: 0.7800
Last: 0.2400
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Bryson DeChambeau competes in a LIV Golf Tournament in Q1 2027 (January 1, 2027 to March 31, 2027), then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)
KXPGATOP40-THOC26-BDEC
The Open Championship: Will Bryson DeChambeau finish top 40?
Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Bryson DeChambeau
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1190
YES ask: 0.4000
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.4000
View on Kalshi
Rules
If Bryson DeChambeau finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Confidence: none
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T08:00:59Z
Code version: ecbe685
Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXLIVCOMPETE-27APR-JRAH/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JRAH] Different tournaments and time periods with no logical connection.
Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees):
-23.45%
(negative yield)
Cost:
$1.1800
+ ~$0.0288 est. fees
Days to maturity:
259
Hurdle yield:
4.48%
Excess yield:
-27.93%
BELOW HURDLE