Pair #11965

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-THOC26-JSPI

The Open Championship: Will Jordan Spieth finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 4129

YES ask: 0.0500
NO ask: 0.9600
Last: 0.0500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan Spieth finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JSPI

The Open Championship: Will Jordan Spieth finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Jordan Spieth
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 8248

YES ask: 0.3900
NO ask: 0.6400
Last: 0.3900

View on Kalshi

Rules If Jordan Spieth finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T08:00:36Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGATOP5-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top5 finish is necessarily also a top40 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.83% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3500 + ~$0.0193 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.06% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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