Pair #11964

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP5-THOC26-JRAH

The Open Championship: Will Jon Rahm finish top 5?

Series: KXPGATOP5
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1540

YES ask: 0.1800
NO ask: 0.8300
Last: 0.1800

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jon Rahm finishes in the top 5 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JRAH

The Open Championship: Will Jon Rahm finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Jon Rahm
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 2267

YES ask: 0.6600
NO ask: 0.9700
Last: 0.6600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Jon Rahm finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T08:00:36Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGATOP5-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top5 finish is necessarily also a top40 finish.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.98% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4900 + ~$0.0256 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.21% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

Authenticate

← Back to review queue