Pair #1195

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOUR-MAST26-TFIN

Will Tony Finau win the Masters Tournament?

Series: KXPGATOUR
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-04-12T23:00:00Z
Volume: 1385475

YES ask: 0.0010
NO ask: 1.0000
Last: 0.0010

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Rules

If Tony Finau wins the Masters Tournament, then the market resolves to Yes.

Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAJORWIN-26-TFIN

Who will win a PGA Tour Major in 2026?

Series: KXPGAMAJORWIN
Entity: Tony Finau
Expiration: 2026-12-31T15:00:00Z
Volume: 4586

YES ask: 0.0300
NO ask: 0.9900
Last: 0.0600

View on Kalshi

Rules

If Tony Finau wins any of the four golf major tournaments (The Masters, the PGA Championship, the U.S. Open, and The Open Championship) in 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

LLM Screening

Confidence: high
Model: claude-sonnet-4-6
Screened: 2026-03-19T08:20:23Z

Reasoning: The Masters is one of the four majors. Winning the Masters necessarily means Finau wins a major in 2026. Winning a major does not necessarily mean he won the Masters — could be a different major.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Yield: N/A
Cost: $1.0300
Days to maturity: N/A
Hurdle yield: N/A
Excess yield: N/A

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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