Pair #11937

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-MJOR

The Open Championship: Will Matthew Jordan finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: Matthew Jordan
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 1881

YES ask: 0.2500
NO ask: 0.9500
Last: 0.2500

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matthew Jordan finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-MJOR

The Open Championship: Will Matthew Jordan make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: Matthew Jordan
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 1450

YES ask: 0.5000
NO ask: 0.5100
Last: 0.5000

View on Kalshi

Rules If Matthew Jordan has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: medium
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T08:00:36Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top40 finish requires having made the cut, though making the cut alone doesn't guarantee top40.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.96% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.4500 + ~$0.0208 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -104.19% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

Not yet reviewed.

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