Pair #11936

Antecedent (if this happens)

KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JPAR

The Open Championship: Will John Parry finish top 40?

Series: KXPGATOP40
Entity: John Parry
Expiration: 2026-08-02T04:00:00Z
Volume: 273

YES ask: 0.3400
NO ask: 0.7500
Last: 0.3500

View on Kalshi

Rules If John Parry finishes in the top 40 (including ties) in the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
Consequent (then it means this happened or will happen)

KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-JPAR

The Open Championship: Will John Parry make the cut?

Series: KXPGAMAKECUT
Entity: John Parry
Expiration: 2026-07-18T02:00:00Z
Volume: 1704

YES ask: 0.5500
NO ask: 0.4600
Last: 0.5500

View on Kalshi

Rules If John Parry has made the cut at the 2026 The Open Championship, then the market resolves to Yes.
LLM Screening

Confidence: medium
Model: claude-sonnet-5
Screened: 2026-07-14T08:00:36Z
Code version: ecbe685

Reasoning: [structural reuse of KXPGAMAKECUT-THOC26-JROS/KXPGATOP40-THOC26-JROS] A top40 finish requires having made the cut, though making the cut alone doesn't guarantee top40.

Strategy: Buy NO on antecedent + YES on consequent
Est. yield (after fees): -99.69% (negative yield)
Cost: $1.3000 + ~$0.0305 est. fees
Days to maturity: 18
Hurdle yield: 4.23%
Excess yield: -103.92% BELOW HURDLE

Human Review

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